Coldwell Banker Advantage Blog

Research Triangle Remains Tight Real Estate Market


Posted: July 03, 2019 by Bryan Selser

I moved down to Raleigh last year for a dream job to help lead Coldwell Banker Advantage, one of the nation’s top real estate companies. Having been in New Jersey for most of my life, I always heard how great the Research Triangle is and how it was growing. 

Everything I heard was right. My family and I absolutely love it here!

And the influx of companies and new jobs continue to power the region’s economy that is having an impact on our real estate market which has fewer homes available for sale than on the national scene. 

Region-wide, we are mimicking the national norm in our median (middle of the list) home prices for those sold in May. We ended the month at $281,500 according to the Triangle MLS, up 5.5% over last May. Nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors monthly Existing Home Sales Report that was issued on Friday, the median price of a U.S. homes was $277,700, up 4.8%.

But we bucked the national figure in the number of sales last month with 4,221 closing. This was up 5.7% over last year while the nation was down 1.1%. There have been nearly 16,000 homes sold in the Triangle region already in 2019.

The biggest difference we have from the rest of the country is in the number of homes on the market. While you would think our 8,343 homes for sale is a lot, it isn’t.  This equates to just a 2.5 month supply of homes that is far below what most in real estate call a “balanced market” of 6 months. We were down in inventory levels in May by 7.0% over a year ago.

We are not seeing the same increase in supply as NAR reports for the country. There are currently 1.92 million homes for sale in the U.S., up 2.7% over last year equating to a 4.3 month supply.

This inventory number is so important because of the supply/demand equation. The fewer homes there are on the market forces buyers to face more competition and less choice. This tends to drive prices up as sellers can get higher offers. Therefore, the Research Triangle is a major “seller’s market.”

Remember that because mortgage interest rates continue to fall (they are averaging 3.82% nationally for a 30-year fixed rate), buyers are getting a boost in affordability with lower monthly mortgage payments.

One of the numbers I believe shows the strength of a market is “days on market” (DOM). This is how quickly it takes for homes to be bought. We are currently at 27 days, a bit above the national number of 24. Even Inside the Beltline, one of the region’s most affluent areas where it is expected to take longer to sell a home, the figure is a staggering low 32 days.

As you would expect, the higher the inventory, the higher the DOM would be. Also, DOM will usually rise during market corrections where a disconnect occurs in what buyers are willing to pay for a home. We are not seeing that at all. 

Take a look at the critical “list to sales price ratio” stat. Obviously the seller wants to get to as close to 100% to what they have put their home on the market for. Region wide, buyers are paying a solid 98.5% of the list price. This means that a $200,000 would likely sell for $197,000.  

Along with being a great barometer for buyers, this stat also shows how well the area’s real estate agents are doing in working with sellers to price their home correctly. Pricing a home is an art and science and one of the most challenging aspects to the sale. Getting the price right is usually extremely important to sellers so that they can attract buyers at listing time (when there is the most market “buzz”) and prevent the home from lingering on the market.  

I want to call out Cary, Apex and Morrisville. If you are looking for a hot real estate market, this is it.

There were nearly 600 homes sold last month, up nearly 5% from a year ago, while prices jumped 11% to nearly $400,000. Days on market is at 23 days and the supply stands at 2.5 months.

Here is a chart showcasing what is happening in our communities:

Market

Sales 

(% change over last May)

Median Sales Price 

(% change over last May)

Days on Market

# Homes for Sale/Month Supply 

Cary/Apex/Morrisville

596 (+4.7%)

$396,500 (+11.1%)

23

1,156/2.5

Chapel Hill/Carrboro

212 (-2.8%)

$390,564 (-2.1%)

28

489/3.2

Durham County

580 (+9.2%)

$278,000 (+7.8%)

16

759/1.7

Fuquay-Varina/Holly Springs

261 (+9.2%)

$325,000 (+3.2%)

24

551/2.7

Garner

113 (+7.8%)

$290,800 (+18.6%)

20

207/1.9

Inside the Beltline

119 (+3.5%)

$451,000 (-3.0%)

32

259/3.1

Johnson County

489 (+21.9%)

$235,227 (+3.0%)

25

856/2.1

Orange County

212 (-8.6%)

$312,000 (-1.0%)

28

444/2.9

Raleigh

916 (+1.4%)

$275,575 (+0.8%)

23

1,465/2.0


I hope I have shed some light on what is happening in our region. If you have any questions, or want to talk to any of our 350 agents, please reach out to me at rgregory@cbadvantage.com.

 

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